Good Save

By Khali Henderson

Like any “clone,” NXTCOMM 2007 entered the world with all the baggage of its “parent.” Despite all the messaging about it being a new event, wholly different than SUPERCOMM, it’s very much the same. This is not surprising. Afterall, its USTelecom/TIA DNA are unchanged.

The two associations – TIA principally representing vendors and USTelecom principally representing service providers and entertainment companies – had partnered since 1988 to produce SUPERCOMM, the industry’s largest trade show. The organizations parted ways after the 2005 event, which was traditionally held every year in June. In 2006, each group held its own event – USTelecom with TelecomNEXT in March and TIA with GLOBALCOMM in June. In October, they announced they would renew their partnership in 2007 with NXTCOMM.

Like backseat drivers, we all like to offer our two cents about the internal problems, i.e. politics. Since most of the talk is supposition, let’s just address the obvious. The spat between the two associations has been a setback. Having two likeminded shows in 2006 was a regrettable decision. It forced attendees and exhibitors to choose sides or allocate more resources to reach what amounts to the same audience. The fact that the schism was repaired is a better decision, but it remains to be seen what, if any, momentum was lost during the split. At a minimum it has contributed to the rushed production of NXTCOMM. The decision to reunite left just a small window for the new crew to rebrand, program and promote. Vendors I spoke to complained of the last-minute execution and the impact it had on their own efforts to market their presence at the show and to participate in the programming.

While USTA and TIA might argue that they are starting over with NXTCOMM, most everyone else I know has referred to the show as SUPERCOMM. It’s subconscious. And, even if we notice we’ve said it, the response is to add something excuse like “SUPERCOMM, GLOBALCOMM, NXTCOMM, whatever they are calling it this year.”

The organizers might be drawing distinction between the original event, but the industry is not.

Moving on to the external problems, let’s talk about industry consolidation. The mergers of service providers and to some extent their vendors has an impact of the need for a trade event. With fewer buyers and sellers there is less need for a trade fair since they all know one other.

This is particularly true of the broad-based events like NXTCOMM and SUPERCOMM before that. They are less likely to provide the granular educational programming that a more narrow-focused conference can. While conventional wisdom says that a "convergence" show would have greater appeal, it’s the niche topics that are drawing the crowds. The telco TV, carrier Ethernet and IP telephony events are growing while the more general shows are not.

To be fair, attendance figures for NXTCOMM have not been released, but the group is projecting 20,000. GLOBALCOMM delivered 18,500 and TelecomNEXT around 10,000. Could the incremental attendance of the recombination be only 1,500? The goal was probably realistic given all the internal challenges alone. Whether it was achieved is another question. Many exhibitors that xchange staff spoke to thought the traffic was light.

This leads to another external factor. SCTE Cable-Tec Expo. The cable engineering show was this week in Orlando. And, many attendees and exhibitors again were forced to choose or to split their staffs to do both shows. One executive told me he hoped SCTE was the reason for the lackluster attendance. This at least would mean that next year’s event in Vegas, June 16-19, 2008, will have a better turnout.

If in fact the numbers were lower than expected, it won’t be from lack of marketing and promotion. "You couldn’t go a day without an e-mail or two reminding you to attend NXTCOMM," quipped one participant.

Others exhibitors downplayed the light traffic by citing “quality over quantity.” They said the prospects were the right ones. Many of these companies had laid the groundwork with publicity campaigns and one-on-one appointments.

No one would discount that the many-to-many model of a trade fair costs much less than one-off trips, but with so many trade shows in the marketplace it cannot be the only reason a show exists.

As press, we have another measure of a trade shows hot quotient. That’s the number of big news events and high-profile keynotes. NXTCOMM delivered on the latter, but the former was limited. There were few major product rollouts from vendors and less still from service providers. Admittedly, there were some noteworthy innovations on the optical and Ethernet front. But, says one of my colleagues, if optical and Ethernet are the hot beat, what does that say about this show?

So, it looks like Wayne Crawford, the new executive director for the event and his team have their work cut out. They must figure out the role this show will play in a changing industry. An insider says those are the marching orders from the NXTCOMM board. Given the challenges of putting this event together in six months, the insider says, the board is offering measured praise: “It was a good dive and catch.”

Maybe with a little more practice, the NXTCOMM 2008 team will deliver a home run.

We know there will be plenty of anxious spectators. When asked, the exhibitors said, “We’ll be back next year.”

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