A Year Gone By, a Year Ahead

Since the inaugural WiMAX World gathering last fall, we’ve seen the first certified products hit the shelves and brand-name service providers take an interest. The momentum behind the standard has increased more in the last 12 months than it had in the previous three years put together — and this year’s show promises to be a showcase for that. More importantly, the year ahead represents questions, hopes, opportunities and challenges — but you’ve come to the right place to explore where to go from here.

First, let’s review. In January, commercial 802.16 became a reality as the first WiMAX Forum-certified products for the initial fixed implementation profile were launched. Certified WiMAX means standardization, which in theory means volume, which brings lower manufacturing costs, cheaper CPE and network gear, and, eventually, widespread deployment. Thus, this first wave of WiMAX was supposed to make BWA competitive for the first time with DSL and cable access, with cheaper rollout costs and easier implementation requirements. And, indeed, WiMAX equipment sales shot up 107 percent to $141 million between the first and second quarters of 2006, according to Infonetics Research. AT&T Inc. and BellSouth Corp. have both deployed fixed WiMAX in the States in certain markets, and BWA-based ISP Clearwire Corp. threw its weight behind the standard this summer.

Then, Sprint Nextel Corp. announced in August that it had chosen Mobile WiMAX as the technology it will use to build out a 4G network in its nationwide 2.5GHz footprint, giving the technology considerable street cred, as it were. The development of 802.16e mobile WiMAX-certified products is now under way; an additional lab in Seoul will certify compatibility and interoperability of mobile WiMAX products, beginning the test procedure validation process in the fourth quarter. Commercial offerings are expected late this year or early in 2007.

In the meantime, some vendors have launched pre-802.16e products built to spec but not yet certified, and Intel Corp. has said it plans to embed an 802.16e client into the next iteration of its Centrino chipset for laptops at some point. This last piece of news addresses the need for widespread device compatibility, which may affect the ultimate success or failure of WiMAX since it’s the key to significant cost declines in end-user devices. Cost of CPE remains a gating factor today.

Which brings us to future issues. What’s ahead for year two of the certified WiMAX era? For all the work that’s been accomplished this year, there’s still plenty to talk about. For instance, mobility, unlike fixed deployments, will require interoperability across networks and devices, and will spark the need for roaming and spectrum harmonization and multiband processors. What will the business models look like once 802.16e becomes deployed? Will new market entrants be able to access the spectrum needed to capitalize on WiMAX’s promise? Will mobile WiMAX be competitive or complementary to existing 3G networks? Does it make sense for municipal deployments? What about an unlicensed profile? WiMAX World promises to be a harbinger of things to come, and the floor an incubator for such discussions.

New opportunities will be prominent at the show. Like the greater mobile industry itself, WiMAX is being targeted as a conduit for content and revenue-enhancing applications, and the conference sessions are a reflection of that trend. VoIP, presence, mobile television, interactive gaming and social networking are but a few next-generation applications a technology like WiMAX can bolster. Which ones will offer mass appeal, and how will third-party content and applications providers fit into the value chain will remain hot topics going forward?

Ultimately, WiMAX is part of the Utopian vision of personalized broadband and ubiquitous mobility. Speakers at the show and vendors in the booths are discussing the road map for how to get there. It truly is a brave new WiMAX World.

The WiMAX industry is new, hopeful, full of dreams and challenges — but in the last year it also managed to earn its chops, reflected in the support and deployments from big players. We’re at a tipping point between the year that’s past and the year to come. I urge you to take the time to discover all this technology has to offer while the big decisions are still being made.

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