ABI: DOCSIS 3.0 Network Equipment Penetration to Reach 60 Percent by 2011

CableLabs recently approved a preliminary specification for DOCSIS 3.0. It is the penultimate version of a standard that will allow cable operators to reduce bandwidth usage while improving performance and capabilities on their existing networks, according to ABI Research. Implications of the development were explored in “DOCSIS 3.0: Cable's IP Video Play,” a new research brief from ABI Research.

"By delivering interactive IP video to the home over DOCSIS, cable operators shift bandwidth demand on their networks to take advantage of the innovative features offered by IP video," said Michael Arden, principal analyst at ABI Research. "CableLabs' release of this nearly final specification will allow vendors to start developing compatible equipment."

The transition to DOCSIS 3.0 will take place in two phases. Cable modem termination system (CMTS) equipment in the network must be replaced before the service can be offered. Later, partly by a process of natural replacement over time, the cable modems and set-top boxes in consumers' homes also will change to DOCSIS 3.0-compatible equipment, according to ABI Research.

Arden said that the first volume of shipments of DOCSIS 3.0-compliant network equipment will be available in 2007. He also noted that penetration of DOCSIS 3.0 is expected to reach nearly 60 percent for in-use CMTS in 2011. “Penetration will be slower for the larger installed base of CPE, reaching just under 40 percent in 2011," he added.

ABI noted that outside of North America, much of the interest in DOCSIS 3.0 has come from Asia; Motorola already has established a DOCSIS 3.0 research center in Singapore.

Other solutions for improving bandwidth usage efficiency are being developed, but ABI Research does not believe they will gain serious traction compared to DOCSIS 3.0. The research firm noted that competition from telco TV providers, if it develops, may spur the cable operators to accelerate the DOCSIS 3.0 transition process.

ABI Research www.abiresearch.com

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