Conflicting Messages 12/04/2008 19:20
Insight Research Corp. said today that the worldwide telecom sector is growing. That was despite ever-grim economic news to the contrary, like UBS’s prediction that telco and cableco capex spending will dive by as much as 10 percent next year. Then came today’s announcements that AT&T is laying off 12,000 people, Windstream is cutting 170 jobs and The Carlyle Group – a top-tier telecom and media private equity firm whose portfolio includes Actelis and now-bankrupt Hawaiian Telcom – is slashing 100 positions. None of that bespeaks growth to me and it’s easy to get shortsighted and even depressed about the onslaught of bad news. When I find myself dwelling too much on the negative, it’s essential to look for the bright spots, even when they’re hard to find. (Don’t worry – I’m not going Pollyanna on you.) I think I discovered a little bright spot this week as I was working on an xchange feature about the holiday shopping season and how it’s affecting our industry. Consumer electronics companies like Microsoft and Nintendo definitely are the winners – Xbox 360 and Wii sales soared on Black Friday. And Apple and AT&T should come out on top, too, thanks to the iPhone. But that’s about it for the good stuff. The other side is that the remaining smartphone makers and service providers aren’t likely to fare as well as Apple and AT&T, analysts say. And less money in means less money out, so vendors are going to suffer, too, as providers pare down on capex spending. It’s a vicious circle. We will break out of it at some point, though, because economies are organic and cycle like this. Plus, pondering the alternative is unthinkable. So, let’s keep hanging in there. There’s a lot to be bummed about right now. There’s a lot to look forward to. How’s that for a conflicting message?
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