McCain, Obama & the Future of Comm Policy

Right off the bat, the FCC complement of commissioners will shift when Deborah Tate leaves by year’s end. Her term expired in June 2007 and the Senate has not yet acted on a new nomination. Sources say the Senate majority is waiting to see who wins the presidential elections so it can achieve a 3-2 Democrat-to-Republican mix. Jonathan Adelstein also is awaiting Senate confirmation of his re-nomination; but if Obama wins, some think he stands a chance of becoming FCC chairman.

“Adelstein was [Tom] Daschle’s right-hand man forever and a day,” said IAG's Entner. “And Daschle and Obama are pretty close.” Daschle was a longtime Democratic senator from South Dakota; Adelstein served as his adviser for seven years.

To clear the way, as is tradition when a new presidential administration takes power, the current FCC chairman is expected to resign. However, if McCain wins, Levin speculated FCC Chairman Martin “will probably” stay on as chairman for some time. The rationale? With Tate gone, the FCC would be comprised of two Republicans and two Democrats. “If I were advising McCain, I’d advise him to ask Martin to stick around as chair until new people were confirmed,” said Levin.

Of the issues facing the FCC, forbearance petitions and USF reform are two of the biggest.

Analysts say if McCain wins, there will be little change in how forbearance requests are handled. But if Obama takes office, commissioners are much more likely to examine and reject the petitions.

On the USF front, the Pike & Fischer survey found reform is a major concern for executives — in fact, 19.5 percent said it is urgent. But outside of the industry, the USF question — which includes who should contribute and how much — isn't top of mind.

"Who pays what for USF right now is about as important as if a rice sack falls over in China," said Entner. "They're more concentrated on winning. ...They probably don't even know what 'USF' stands for."

USF is difficult to analyze through a partisan lens, said Levin of Stifel Nicolaus. Obama has talked about shifting USF from a voice-centric to a broadband-centric subsidy, Levin explained. Alternatively, McCain has tended to be skeptical of Universal Service.

“He has talked about the importance of connecting everyone, but it’s not clear what he means by that,” said Levin.

Communications M&A

As with net neutrality, wiretapping and the FCC, there doesn’t appear to be much mystery as to how an Obama or McCain administration would handle service provider mergers.

On Obama's watch, "you'd have a lot more scrutiny," said Entner. "The current Alltel/Verizon merger would have taken definitely longer under an Obama administration," he added. "They're doing everything they can to finish this up by November."

ITIF’s Atkinson agreed. Obama "would be more concerned about mergers than a McCain administration,” but that doesn’t mean McCain would just "roll over."

“He'd be more likely to say mergers are not that much of a problem," Atkinson said of McCain.

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