Springtime for WiMAX

Certified products are here — will WiMAX be a hit or a flop?

In January, the curtain rose on the year’s most-anticipated production, commercial WiMAX. Waiting in the wings are the producers — the WiMAX Forum — and their entourage, breathlessly waiting for the reviews.

Opening night, however, has proven a bit anti-climactic.

The first WiMAX Forum-certified products comply with the initial fixed WiMAX implementation profile. While validating the baseline fixed WiMAX functionality is a critical first step, it’s unlikely to make service providers laugh, cry and do it all over again, particularly since this wave one certification simply will have the affect of making honest providers out of those with pre-WiMAX solutions. “For the past year, vendors have been selling on the basis of their migration plans from proprietary gear to future WiMAX ranges, and shipping equipment built to 802.16 standards but not yet certified,” says Eliot Weinman, CEO and founder of Trendsmedia.

Now that certified product is here, those vendors can rest easier, but there has not been a flurry of new networks built.

Certified WiMAX means standardization, which means volume, which brings lower manufacturing costs, cheaper CPE and network gear. Thus, WiMAX was supposed to make broadband wireless access (BWA) competitive for the first time with DSL and cable access, with cheaper rollout costs and easier implementation requirements. Despite the spotlight on commercial WiMAX, it has yet to live up to these advance notices. There are some service provider movements (AT&T Inc. has been testing fixed WiMAX for network in-fill purposes in the United States, and there are several fixed WiMAX trials under way overseas), but there has not been enough volume to realize the promised cost benefits. CPE hovers at $300 per subscriber, according to Senza Fili Consulting LLC.

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Nonetheless, the stage may yet be set for certified success. The WiMAX Theatre green room is home to an expanded test suite that by the middle of the year will include QoS, security and compatibility with an initial five classes of applications, such as e-mail, video streaming, interactive gaming and others that may inspire service providers. “About every six months we will expand the test suite,” says Jeff Orr, director of marketing for the WiMAX Forum.

Also, the organization is putting together proof-of-concept labs for specific use cases, sponsored by member companies. The resulting data will be used in case studies, white papers and other marketing activities to show how WiMAX can fit certain industry parameters. For example, one test case involves broadcast news; the trial will show how WiMAX can help local news teams backhaul video from live remotes, as well as back up point-to-point links to affiliates.

“We are at the point where WiMAX can actually start generating revenue,” says Orr. “We will be more proactive in spreading that message this year and beyond.”

While today’s certified products aren’t yet garnering multiple curtain calls, one could chalk that up to casting. A new star — 802.16e — could take the show to the top.

The first 802.16e certifications are expected in the fourth quarter or the early part of 2007. Some vendors are aiming for sooner with a pre-802.16e set of products — Samsung unveiled a base station built to the 802.16e spec at 3GSM, for instance. An additional lab in Seoul will certify compatibility and interoperability of mobile WiMAX products, beginning the test procedure validation process in the fourth quarter.

The promise of certified 802.16e product may have dampened the first commercial phase of WiMAX. “This is clearly an issue because the wait for 802.16e will slow market growth and basically lengthen the decision process of service providers uncertain as to which version of WiMAX to adopt,” says Monica Paolini, an analyst with Senza Fili.

Even so, the real opportunity for WiMAX will arrive with the introduction of 802.16e products, says Shamik Mukherjee, manager for WiMAX systems at Motorola Inc., which will deliver pre-mobile WiMAX solutions as part of its MOTOwi4 family of wireless broadband solutions this quarter. Motorola is engaged in customer trials and expects to see full WiMAX deployments this year. “Portable and mobile applications have a very strong track record for accelerating volume. Mobile deployments of 802.16e will bring cost points down below solutions engineered solely for fixed applications using 802.16d.” That’s because mobility requires interoperability across networks and devices.

Intel Corp.’s plans to embed 802.16e into the next iteration of Centrino also may affect the ultimate success or failure of WiMAX. “With 802.16e, we will be able to realize significant cost declines in end-user devices through the support of chipset manufacturers and their commitments to supplying a large base of end-user devices with embedded 802.16e chipsets,” says Mukherjee.

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