What's the Future for 4G?

This month marks a momentous combination of events that many see as building blocks for a new industry centered around ubiquitous, open-access-based wireless 4G connectivity. But questions remain as to how 4G ultimately will impact the wireline business for carriers.

All signs point to open access winning out in wireless: The iPhone developer kit hits the streets this month, enabling the long-awaited opening of that device to third-party applications. A 3G upgrade shouldn’t be far behind. Meanwhile, Verizon Wireless’ publication of technical standards and a road map for the testing of devices for network compatibility also should begin in February or thereabouts — a necessary step to realize its pledge to open its network to any device or application. And by the time you read this, Sprint will have two months of data on its soft launch of WiMAX, while its new CEO will have laid out the company’s reconsidered WiMAX strategy. Sprint has spent months pushing the idea of a WiMAX-enabled world where data applications run freely on an open wireless Internet and devices are made by consumer electronics companies (personal Internet gaming devices, TVs, softphone handsets, an Xbox 4G, you name it) and purchased at the Best Buys of the world.

If taken to its logical end, the path the industry is on could culminate in a pervasive shroud of open mobile and fixed broadband, which will allow users to port content, call-routing preferences and their profiles between work, home and anywhere in between. Analysts predict third-party applications and user-generated/social networking traffic will explode.

Verizon's Richard Lynch

"With 4G wireless, the user shouldn’t see any difference between the wired or wireless network, and will have multiple options for connectivity," says Danny Locklear, director of wireless product marketing at Nortel Networks. "If 2001 saw an inflection where data overtook voice on public networks, by 2011 the expectation is that wireless will overtake wireline connections. Anything that can be connected to the Internet will be connected at some point, and the number of commercial devices connected wirelessly will skyrocket. We expect that every user will have about 10 connections across multiple consumer electronics devices, making for 5 billion Internet connections total worldwide."

In December, while Sprint grappled with financial issues, a change in leadership and the demise of its partnership with Clearwire Corp. to build out a nationwide WiMAX network, Verizon Communications Inc. gave the 4G notion fresh wings with its announcement that it will build out a 4G network based on LTE technology. Verizon Wireless and its parent Vodafone plc are in trials with the LTE architecture this year; trial suppliers include Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Motorola Inc., Nokia-Siemens Networks and Nortel. On the device side, the companies are working with LG, Motorola, Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson, as well as consumer electronics companies.

"Devices are a critical area in terms of how the market develops, because 4G is not just about a radio model," says Mark Slater, vice president of sales and marketing at Nokia-Siemens Networks. "This is a holistic effort for providers."

All of this begs the question: With a fat layer of connectivity pervading the airwaves, and traditionally wired devices untethered — televisions, modems, even smart refrigerators — what does that mean for say, Verizon’s FiOS buildout? A clue can be found in the fact that it was Verizon Communications, not Verizon Wireless, that issued the 4G announcement, indicating that LTE is part of a larger strategy. For instance, 4G will be devoted to data, while existing 3G networks will continue to carry voice for the foreseeable future.

Sprint's Dan Hesse

"While this next-generation technology will be exciting to develop and deploy, it comes at a time when we are adding record numbers of customers to our existing CDMA2000 1x and EV-DO networks," says Richard Lynch, Verizon’s executive vice president and CTO of Verizon Communications. "We relish the challenge of preparing for the time when our customers start demanding such 4G capabilities, while continuing the expansion and operation of our existing technologies for many years to come."

Maniam Palanivelu, senior manager of wireless solutions at Nortel, explains that users will end up with a concerted connectivity approach, in an access-agnostic world that won’t be priced out by akccess type. "In-car connectivity, consumer devices, different distribution models, combinations of apps, technology and devices, all of these will act together," he says. "It’s the hyperconnectivity concept — it’s about multiple connections, wireline and wireless together," within one subscription that is tied to the user, not the device or network being used.

Slater says that 4G also should be considered as a way to enhance existing services. "Layering 4G on top of U-verse or FiOS is complementary to those existing assets," he explains, "allowing users to extend what they already have to the outside of their home."

The necessity to support legacy installed services notwithstanding, there may be a behind-the-scenes benefit for operators eventually to migrate to 4G as a primary access method. Whether it’s GSM-based LTE or WiMAX, both use the same highly efficient access interfaces — OFDM and MIMO — which are much more effective than today’s networks. They also are based on a flat IP architecture, which significantly reduces the cost per bit for delivering multimedia. "This will open up all the access bottlenecks that have traditionally plagued operators," says Locklear.

For a list of 4G initiatives that have been announced, visit www.xchangemag.com/addedinsight-march2.

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