Sprint-Clearwire Rides Again, LTE Makes Inroads

"More than 100 different devices are in various stages of testing and certification," said Wolff. "We'll see certified devices by the end of the year, with some commercial availability. But in '09 there will be a tremendous expansion. Later in 2009 and 2010, there will be WiMAX-enabled consumer electronics devices of the sort not historically connected, other than with a USB cord, such as cameras."

Not only is that great news for Intel in terms of scale, but it's a paradigm shift. And because WiMAX subscription rates (West indicated service is expected to cost anywhere between $20 to $60 per month, as dictated by the market) will apply to the person, not the device, users conceivably could have a variety of WiMAX devices, even things that don't move, like washing machines (which can alert the subscriber if they're about to overflow, for instance) on an account.

This drives both the business case around WiMAX as well as the consumer electronics explosion that Wolff predicts, given no one is likely to shell out $60 per month just to upload photos wirelessly to a Web site from a camera. But with $60 per month for connectivity to almost everything, the outlook changes.

"We've gotten in the past the question about whether there will be a need for 4G services," said West. "There are certainly a lot of skeptics, because 3G is too little for too much money. This is a radical new idea."

Assuming this all happens on schedule, WiMAX should enjoy a time-to-market advantage relative to LTE, the other key contender in 4G wireless.

But Clearwire eventually will be something of an anomaly considering that the major cellcos have declared themselves in the LTE camp, with even Sprint’s CEO Dan Hesse intimating at one point that the door is open for Sprint itself to possibly pursue the technology.

Arun Bhikshesvaran, CTO at Ericsson North America, has predicted widespread mass national deployment of LTE by 2012 — a boosterism that is unsurprising considering the vendor has eschewed developing WiMAX. The wind does seem to be blowing that direction.

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